To lowest order, the emission rate of photons with polarization ${\boldsymbol \epsilon} $ is proportional to the square of the matrix element $$\mathcal M_{fi}^{(1)} = \langle f | \boldsymbol \epsilon \cdot \mathbf r|i\rangle$$
which, can be expressed as $$\mathcal M_{fi}^{(1)} = \int d^3 r \, \psi^*_f(\mathbf r) \boldsymbol \epsilon \cdot \mathbf r \psi_i(\mathbf r) $$
where $\psi_f, \psi_f$ are the wavefunctions of the final and initial states, respectively. Depending on the particular shapes of the wavefunctions, $\mathcal M_{fi}^{(1)} $ can be larger or smaller. In particular, $\mathcal M_{fi}^{(1)} $ is identically zero unless $\ell_i = \ell_f \pm 1$ where $\ell_{i,f}$ is the initial (final) orbital angular momentum quantum number. This is called a selection rule.
If the selection rule is not fulfilled, the next order contribution to the transition rate is $$\mathcal M_{fi}^{(2)} = i \langle f | (\boldsymbol \epsilon \cdot \mathbf p) (\mathbf k\cdot \mathbf r) | i\rangle$$
where $\mathbf k$ is the wavevector of the transition. Since the wavelengths of atomic transitions are much longer than the size of the atoms (hundreds of nanometers compared to tenths of nanometers), $|\mathbf k \cdot \mathbf r| \ll 1$ wherever the wavefunctions are appreciable, which means that these matrix elements indeed are much smaller than the first order ones.
Hence, these transitions are strongly suppressed (but still occur).
In addition, the emission rate contains factors of the energy difference between the initial and final states.
Finally, one must take into account the degeneracies of the states. For example, in the hydrogen atom there are (including spin) 2 $1s$ states and 6 $2p$ states. According to the fundamental assumption of thermodynamics, all $2p$ states are equally populated. Hence, the observed transition rate will be $6/2 = 3$ times higher than if the degeneracy were not taken into account.
A detailed description of how to calculate these things can be found in any introductory quantum mechanics textbook, for example Griffiths or Townsend.