Short answer:
Think of the situation in a spherical cooridnate system, with the point of reflection in the water surface at origin and the $z$-axis parallel to the still water surface and pointing in the azimuthal direction of the sun.
As the sun gets lower, both the incoming and reflected light rays becomes closer to parallel to the $z$-axis. Imagine rotating the water surface by small amounts in the $\theta$ and $\varphi$ directions respectively and think of the effects that has on the direction of the reflected light.
As the light rays get closer to parallel to the $z$-axis, the effects of rotations in the $\varphi$ direction have smaller and smaller effects on the direction of the reflected light. In the extreme case of the sun at the horizon, rotations in $\varphi$ have no effect at all. This is because all values of $\varphi$ represent the same point for $\theta=0$ and $\theta=\pi$.
Longer version of the same answer (more math):
I find it's helpful to think about this in a spherical coordinate system:

The coordinate system is chosen so that the $x$-axis is orthogonal to still water surface, and the $y$-axis is orthogonal to the incoming sun light. Imagine the reflecting water surface at the origin, and 3 vectors on the unit sphere. The first vector is the normal of the reflecting surface, which we will write on this form:
$$
\boldsymbol{r}_n = (1,\, \pi/2 + \delta\theta_n,\, \delta\varphi_n)
$$
It's basically pointing in the $x$ direction, except for small variations due to waves represented by $\delta\theta_n$ and $\delta\varphi_n$. The second vector is pointing towards the incoming sun light:
$$
\boldsymbol{r}_i = (1,\, \theta_i,\, 0)
$$
and the third is pointing in the direction of the reflected light:
$$
\boldsymbol{r}_r = (1,\, \theta_r,\, \varphi_r)
$$
Due to the law of reflection, we get the following relations between the angles:
$$
\begin{align}
(\pi/2 + \delta\theta_n) - \theta_i & = \theta_r - (\pi/2 + \delta\theta_n)\\
\Rightarrow\,\,\,\, \theta_r & = \pi - \theta_i + 2\delta\theta_n
\end{align}
$$
$$
\begin{align}
\delta\varphi_n - 0 &= \varphi_r - \delta\varphi_n\\
\Rightarrow\,\,\,\, \varphi_r &= 2\delta\varphi_n
\end{align}
$$
In order to see the magnitude of influence of the small changes in the orientation of the reflecting surface ($\delta\theta_n$ and $\delta\varphi_n$) on the direction of the reflected light, we can use the formula for infinitesimal displacements in spherical coordinate systems:
$$
\mathrm{d}\boldsymbol{r} = \mathrm{d}r\,\boldsymbol{\hat{r}} + r\,\mathrm{d}\theta\,\boldsymbol{\hat{\theta}} + r \sin{\theta}\,\mathrm{d}\varphi\,\boldsymbol{\hat{\varphi}}
$$
For $\boldsymbol{r}_r$ we get:
$$
\begin{align}
\mathrm{d}\boldsymbol{r}_r &= \mathrm{d}\theta_r\,\boldsymbol{\hat{\theta}} + \sin{\theta_r}\,\mathrm{d}\varphi_r\,\boldsymbol{\hat{\varphi}}\\
&= 2\delta\theta_n\,\boldsymbol{\hat{\theta}} + \sin{(\pi - \theta_i + 2\delta\theta_n)}\,2\delta\varphi_n\,\boldsymbol{\hat{\varphi}}\\
&= 2\delta\theta_n\,\boldsymbol{\hat{\theta}} + 2\sin{(\theta_i - 2\delta\theta_n)}\,\delta\varphi_n\,\boldsymbol{\hat{\varphi}}\\
&\approx 2\delta\theta_n\,\boldsymbol{\hat{\theta}} + 2\sin{\theta_i}\,\delta\varphi_n\,\boldsymbol{\hat{\varphi}}\\
\end{align}
$$
In the right had side, we see that the $\delta\theta_n$ variations are amplified in the direction of the reflected light by a factor of $2$, while the $\delta\varphi_n$ variations are amplified by a factor of $2\sin{\theta_i}$.
Since $\theta_i$ is basically the elevation angle of the sun, this means that as the sun gets closer to the horizon ($\theta_i = 0$), the surface variations in one direction starts to get heavily attenuated, while in the other direction the amplification factor of $2$ remains constant.