I'm calculating the (instantaneous) rate of precession of a symmetric top (i.e. $I_1=I_2\neq I_3$) that is tilted at angle $\theta$ to the vertical if a torque $\vec{G}$ is applied, as shown below:
It has initial angular velocity $\vec\omega$ about the 3rd principal axis, and initial angular momentum $\vec{J}$ about the same axis. The torque vector, $\vec{G}$ is coming out of the screen.
By adding $\delta \vec{J}=\vec{G}\;\delta t$ to $\vec{J}$, I can see that the angular momentum vector is going to move in a direction coming out of the screen. However, I don't know how to rationalise where it's going to go next - is it going to precess about the vertical axis or the horizontal axis? Why would it prefer one or the other? The precession frequencies in each case would be
$$\Omega_\text{vertical} = \frac{G}{J\sin\theta}\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\Omega_\text{horizontal}=\frac{G}{J\cos\theta}$$
See figure below:
EDIT: For context, I am trying to find the precession of the Earth due to the Sun alone. I am modelling the Earth as a symmetric top exactly as above, and the torque comes from the tidal forces on the Earth from the Sun. I have already calculated the properties of the disc and the torque, I am just stuck on rationalising why the angular momentum vector (i.e. the South -> North vector) should rotate about an axis perpendicular to the Earth-Sun radius, rather than parallel to it). I think the question remains the same.
Is the fact that this cone is perpendicular to the Earth's orbital plane because of the extra constraint that the Earth is orbiting the sun, so the torque is constantly rotating about the vertical axis? This is the only thing I can think that breaks the symmetry here.
For a general gyroscope (not orbiting or anything) what would happen, or is that question too ill-defined?
– Garf Feb 09 '20 at 19:56